Obi’s ADC Future Uncertain as Atiku Factor Looms Over 2027 Ambition

The political landscape ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections is shifting rapidly, with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) emerging as the primary battleground for opposition heavyweights. Recent insights from public affairs analyst Jide Ojo suggest that Peter Obi’s stay within the ADC may be short-lived if internal party dynamics favor former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Speaking on Channels Television, Ojo highlighted a growing concern that the former Anambra State Governor could exit the party should he lose the presidential ticket to Atiku.

The crux of the tension lies in the mechanism of the party’s primaries. Ojo pointed out that if the ADC opts for an indirect primary system, Atiku’s deep pockets and historical influence over party delegates could give him a significant edge. The analyst noted that the “rumor mill” often characterizes Atiku as a “benevolent spender” during primary elections. This financial muscle poses a direct threat to Obi’s aspirations, potentially forcing him to seek yet another platform to ensure his name remains on the ballot.

Despite Atiku’s perceived advantage in delegate politics, Obi remains a formidable force due to his grassroots popularity and the massive defection of lawmakers who followed him from the Labour Party. Ojo recalled the events of December 31, 2025, when Obi officially moved to the ADC. On that day, four senators and sixteen members of the House of Representatives from the Southeast declared their allegiance to the party, alongside numerous state assembly members. This level of institutional support marks a stark contrast to Atiku’s defection in November, which was not accompanied by a similar wave of serving lawmakers.

The analyst believes Obi’s recent declarations are a clear signal of his intent. By stating emphatically that he will be on the ballot in 2027, Obi has effectively ruled out the possibility of serving as a running mate to Atiku or anyone else. In the Nigerian electoral system, “being on the ballot” is synonymous with being the standard-bearer of a political party. This suggests that Obi is not interested in playing “second fiddle,” a position he occupied during the 2019 elections under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

If the ADC becomes a space where Atiku dictates the pace or captures the nomination through superior financial logistics, Obi’s departure seems almost inevitable. The analyst suggested that Atiku is not merely interested in the ticket but is actively working to position himself as the primary decision-maker within the party’s structure. This power play creates a “fear in certain quarters” that the democratic process within the ADC could be overshadowed by the influence of high-net-worth political actors.

For Obi, the stakes are high. His movement, largely driven by the “Obidient” youth base, thrives on the image of a clean break from traditional, money-driven politics. If he perceives the ADC primaries as being skewed by the highest bidder, staying would compromise his brand. Consequently, his supporters are already looking at potential alternative platforms should the ADC environment become hostile to his candidacy.

As the 2027 race heats up, the ADC finds itself in a precarious position. While hosting two of the country’s most popular opposition figures gives the party immense visibility, it also sets the stage for a high-stakes collision. The departure of Peter Obi would likely take a significant chunk of the party’s newly acquired legislative strength with him, potentially leaving the ADC as a shell of its current self.

The coming months will be telling for the opposition’s strategy. If a consensus cannot be reached between the Atiku and Obi camps, the fragmentation of the opposition vote remains the greatest gift to the ruling party. However, Ojo’s analysis confirms one thing: Peter Obi is committed to the race, and his loyalty to any party logo is secondary to his goal of securing a path to the presidency.