Atiku’s Shadow Looms Over ADC as Baba-Ahmed Predicts Post-Primary Implosion

The delicate political maneuvering within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is reaching a boiling point, with high-stakes predictions suggesting the party may face a catastrophic fracture before the 2027 general elections. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a veteran political analyst and former presidential adviser, has sounded a public alarm regarding the inevitable clash of egos and ambitions currently congregating under the ADC umbrella.

Speaking during a candid assessment on Channels Television’s Politics Today, Baba-Ahmed dissected the internal dynamics of the party, which has recently become a magnet for heavyweights seeking a fresh platform. He argued that while the ADC is currently enjoying a surge in profile due to high-profile arrivals, this growth is a double-edged sword that could lead to a massive walkout once a presidential candidate is officially crowned.

At the heart of this potential crisis is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Baba-Ahmed boldly predicted that if the ADC proceeds to a national convention to select its standard-bearer, Atiku is almost certain to emerge victorious. The sheer political machinery and resources at the disposal of the former Vice President make him a formidable force that few within the current ADC structure can realistically challenge in a fair or even an unfair contest.

However, the victory for Atiku would likely come at a staggering cost to the party’s unity. Baba-Ahmed suggested that the ADC has become a temporary harbor for politicians who are all “eyeing the same thing.” These individuals are not necessarily joined by ideology but by a singular desire to secure a presidential ticket. When that ticket is inevitably handed to a veteran like Atiku, the resulting exodus of disgruntled aspirants and their loyalists could leave the party in a state of terminal bleeding.

The analysis took a particularly sharp turn when discussing the role of Peter Obi, the former Governor of Anambra State. Baba-Ahmed provided a critical look at Obi’s political style, suggesting a fundamental disconnect between Obi’s expectations and the harsh realities of competitive party politics. According to the former adviser, Obi has historically shown a preference for being “anointed” rather than fighting through the rigors of a contested primary convention.

There is a growing narrative that Peter Obi may have been lured into the current coalition with quiet promises of an easy path to the candidacy. Baba-Ahmed hinted that early supporters were likely whispering sweet promises of a guaranteed ticket to Obi, but the tone has shifted significantly now that the arena has become crowded. The polite whispers have been replaced by a stern directive for everyone, including Obi, to “join the queue.”

This shift in dynamics puts Obi in a difficult position. Unlike Atiku, who is seasoned in the art of the convention struggle, Obi’s recent political trajectory has relied heavily on being a consensus figure or a sole beneficiary of a movement. Baba-Ahmed’s assertion that “Peter Obi doesn’t do convention” points to a potential breaking point where the former Labour Party candidate might find the ADC environment too hostile or too competitive for his liking.

The prediction of an “anointing” vs. “contest” culture creates a fascinating tension within the ADC. If the party tries to satisfy Obi by bypassing a convention, it risks alienating other ambitious heavyweights. Conversely, if it follows the democratic path of a competitive primary to satisfy Atiku’s camp, it risks losing the “Obidient” momentum that follows the former Anambra governor wherever he goes.

Baba-Ahmed’s insights suggest that the ADC is currently a house of cards held together by the hope of individual success. He noted that the moment the primary results are announced, the mask of unity will likely slip, revealing a deeply divided front. The losers in such a scenario are unlikely to stay and play the role of “good party men,” especially when they believe they were promised a platform they didn’t receive.

For the ADC, the arrival of Atiku Abubakar is both a blessing and a curse. It provides the party with immediate national relevance and a seasoned campaigner, but it also creates a “winner-takes-all” atmosphere that leaves little room for other aspirants. Baba-Ahmed is convinced that Atiku’s desire for the ticket is the driving force behind the current push for a convention, and Atiku rarely enters a race he hasn’t already calculated a path to winning.

This looming implosion raises questions about the viability of third-party coalitions in Nigeria. While the intent is often to provide an alternative to the dominant parties, the influx of career politicians with entrenched ambitions often replicates the same problems found in the PDP and APC. The ADC’s struggle is a microcosm of the larger challenge facing the Nigerian opposition: how to merge powerful individual brands into a single, cohesive unit without the structure collapsing under the weight of those brands.

As the 2027 cycle begins to take shape, the ADC finds itself at a crossroads of destiny and disaster. If Baba-Ahmed’s forecast holds true, the party will experience a brief moment of triumph at its convention, followed immediately by a wave of high-profile resignations. This “bleeding,” as he termed it, could render the party’s presidential ticket a hollow prize, stripped of the very coalition that made it attractive in the first place.

Ultimately, the political landscape remains fluid, but the warning from Baba-Ahmed serves as a reality check for those who believe the ADC has found a magic formula for unity. The battle between the “anointed” path of Peter Obi and the “conventional” dominance of Atiku Abubakar is set to be the defining drama of the opposition in the months to come.