Abati Challenges NBS Inflation Data, Cites Disconnect Between Statistics and Market Reality

The veteran journalist and former presidential spokesperson, Reuben Abati, has voiced a stinging critique of the recent economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, questioning the tangible impact of reported inflation drops on the average Nigerian household. Speaking during a broadcast on Arise Television’s Morning Show, Abati expressed deep skepticism regarding the credibility of the latest figures, which suggest a consecutive decline in the nation’s inflation rate. For the seasoned commentator, the numbers being circulated in official government bulletins appear to exist in a different universe than the one inhabited by citizens currently struggling with the soaring costs of basic goods.

Abati pointedly noted that while the National Bureau of Statistics has pegged the inflation rate at 15.15 percent for the month of December, there is a glaring absence of evidence to support this claim in the local markets. He argued that for the majority of the population, the “creative” accounting used to reach these figures does not provide any relief at the checkout counter. The discrepancy between state-sponsored data and the lived experience of the people has become a focal point of national debate, with Abati leading the charge against what he perceives as a disconnect between bureaucracy and the reality of the streets.

The journalist suggested that much of this recent statistical movement is the result of changes in methodology, specifically the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index. While the International Monetary Fund’s resident representative has suggested that these new methodologies will eventually translate into concrete benefits for the Nigerian populace, Abati remains unconvinced. He highlighted that despite the NBS reporting a downward trend for several consecutive months, the price of staples such as rice, beans, and cooking oil continues to climb or remain stubbornly high, rendering the official percentages largely academic.

In his analysis, Abati addressed the common defense used by economists, who often argue that there is a significant lag time between the cooling of inflation figures and a visible reduction in retail prices. He countered this by stating that the wait has become excessively long, pushing the patience of the Nigerian public to its breaking point. For Abati, the true barometer of economic health is not found in a government spreadsheet but in the cost of a food basket. He maintained that until there is a dramatic and noticeable crash in food inflation, any talk of a recovering economy will be met with widespread derision.

The former presidential aide further observed that the skepticism is not limited to media personalities alone but is shared by key industrial players. He noted that the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria has also expressed profound concern regarding the economic environment. Manufacturers, who are on the front lines of production and distribution, are dealing with high energy costs and foreign exchange volatility, factors that seem to contradict the narrative of a cooling inflationary environment. If the producers cannot see the benefits of lower inflation, Abati argued, it is unlikely that the end consumers will see them anytime soon.

Abati’s critique touches on a broader issue of trust in public institutions. When the data provided by the state fails to align with the physical reality of the marketplace, it creates a vacuum of confidence. He suggested that the reliance on “statistical creativity” or new rebasing techniques might be a way for the government to present a more favorable image of the economy to international observers and investors, but it does little to alleviate the hunger or financial stress of the domestic population. The lack of synergy between the numbers and the marketplace suggests that the current economic policies may not be addressing the root causes of the cost-of-living crisis.

The dialogue surrounding the Consumer Price Index often becomes technical, involving complex baskets of goods and weighted averages, but Abati stripped the conversation down to its most basic elements. He argued that the credibility of the National Bureau of Statistics hinges on its ability to reflect the actual economic temperature of the country. If the bureau continues to report a cooling economy while the public experiences a heatwave of rising costs, the agency risks becoming irrelevant to the national discourse. The journalist’s “slam” of the report serves as a reminder that economic recovery is measured in purchasing power, not just percentages.

Furthermore, the influence of international financial organizations like the IMF in validating these statistics was also a point of contention for Abati. He hinted that while international bodies may approve of refined data collection methods, those methods must be grounded in the local context to be useful. The disconnect he describes suggests that the “rebasing” may have inadvertently masked the severity of the inflationary pressure on the most vulnerable segments of society. By changing the goalposts, the government may be able to claim a “win” on paper, but the social cost of high food prices remains a looming threat to stability.

As the debate continues, Abati’s comments have resonated with a public that feels increasingly alienated by official economic narratives. His demand for “evidence in terms of the cost of living” is a call for a more honest assessment of the nation’s financial health. He concluded that the only way to win back public trust is for the government to move beyond statistical projections and implement policies that result in a visible, undeniable reduction in the prices of essential commodities. Until the whistle blows in the market to signal lower prices, Abati and many others will continue to view the NBS reports with a heavy dose of suspicion.